murmur x402 canary

The Arc x402 Canary

A live, read-only telemetry window into murmur's real-money x402 settlement rail on Arc mainnet. Every figure below is pulled client-side from the same free, keyless, CORS-open endpoints the swarm itself runs on — no synthetic load, no testnet, no LLM anywhere in the loop. A population of autonomous fruit-fly nervous systems trades around the clock and settles real USDC over x402 / EIP-3009, folded into per-pair nets to amortise gas.

connecting…

reads api.muros.live/economy · /history · /predictions · /proofs — view source, it's all client-side.

01Settlement reliability

Terminal outcomes of real on-chain net settlements. successRate = settleOk ÷ settleAttempts over genuine broadcast attempts (shadow dry-runs excluded), plus the measured submit→finality latency of each mined settle (timed at the facilitator facade, so it covers whichever rail is live). All additive lifetime counters, persisted across deploys — read live from /economy.

settlement success rate
settleOk / settleAttempts
on-chain mined
real Arc txs (netted)
failed broadcasts
verify/settle never mined
gross trades settled
lifetime ledger count
settled volume
lifetime USDC
live agents
trading now
wealth Gini
emergent inequality
mean balance
USDC / agent
settle latency · avg
submit → finality
settle latency · max
slowest mined settle
settle latency · last
most recent settle
mined failed

02Netting & gas amortisation

Micropayments are not broadcast one-per-trade. Per-pair nets accumulate bilaterally and only the difference moves on-chain, so gas is amortised over more value per transaction. The fold figures are derived live from /economy totals — count (gross trades) against settleAttempts (broadcasts) — and the net-pending gauges below read the live in-flight accumulator (pairs folded, not yet broadcast).

netting fold ratio
gross trades per broadcast
on-chain txs avoided
vs one tx per trade
net-pending pairs
folded, awaiting flush
trades in flight
gross, not yet mined
pending buffer fold
trades per pending net
naive rail · 1 tx / trade
murmur · per-pair nets

03Prediction FLAT & refunds

The swarm also bets real USDC each cron on the next tick's Arc temperature, resolved parimutuel by the chain (zero-sum, no house). A FLAT resolution — inside the flat band — refunds every stake as net-zero flows, so nothing broadcasts on the settlement rail: a FLAT round is a resolution outcome, not a refund transaction. Rate below is read live from /predictions.

FLAT / refund rate
of recent resolved rounds
rounds resolved
lifetime
committed on-chain
decisive → registry
window shown
recent resolutions
FLAT (refunded) decisive (UP/DOWN)

04Live time series

From the independent per-cron D1 archive (/history) — one row per cron, separate from the live Durable-Object state, so these curves are cross-checkable against the on-chain receipts.

on-chain settlements (cumulative)
settled volume (cumulative, USDC)
gross trades per cron
wealth Gini
Arc market temperature (0–1) · regime bands

05Uptime & liveness

archived window
first → last cron
crons archived
one D1 row each
last tick
sub-tick index
cadence
~1/min
6 sub-ticks per cron

06Why these numbers are credible

🔏 Every real transfer is neurally sourced & on-chain verifiable

Each on-chain net settlement sets its EIP-3009 nonce to the sha256 of a receipt bundling the frozen buyer/seller neural read-outs that caused it, hash-chained via prevChain and committed on Arc (every proof carries its commitTx). A receipt invented after the fact could never hash to a mined nonce — so the trades behind every figure above are provably decided by connectomes, not a human or an LLM.

chain head · loading live anchor…

GET /proofs → the chain (last 64 served) · chainHead  ·  GET /proofs/verify?tx=0x… → { selfConsistent, match, registry }  ·  or verify in-browser at muros.live → neural proofs.

07Caveats & honest limits

All six headline metrics are now instrumented. What follows are the honest edges of each figure — what it does and does not claim — so nothing above is over-read.

⏱ latency is submit→receipt, on an instant-finality chain context

Arc finalises deterministically (sub-second blocks, no reorg), so settleMs* measures the RPC broadcast→receipt round-trip, not a reorg-confirmation wait. Values are naturally small; the signal is the tail (max) and any drift over time.

◌ net-pending is an instantaneous gauge context

netPending/netPendingTrades are sampled at snapshot time and drain at the next cron flush; they are not lifetime totals. Circle /status reconciliation stays defined-but-unwired (the internal rail settles on-chain directly).

↩ FLAT rate is windowed, gas is a tx-count reduction context

The FLAT/refund rate is computed over the recent resolutions /predictions serves (a lifetime FLAT tally is not exposed). And “txs avoided” is the transaction-count reduction that amortises gas — murmur does not yet publish per-tx gas units.